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Online Conference
B: New Development of Electronic Commerce -
Scenarios for Economic Structure Improvement
Feb 20 - Feb 22, 1998

From: Global Information Summit Office
Subject: [011] message from J. Helsingius
Georges Fischer observed:
For years (hundreds of years) we've been taught in a sequential way, from A to Z. Or, with the Internet and the hypertext (and TV : channel surfing), this seems to be totally out of focus. When you look nowadays at a younsgter's learning process, you immediately see that it is non continuous : he's jumping, surfing from one idea to another. Is our educational system and its content (i.e. the teachers!) ready for this kind of teaching (the answer is probably NO) and how to adapt : these are my questions!
I have to agree with this observation, but also add that there are
also countries (such as the nordic countries and the Netherlands) that
have for quite a while emphasised encouraging non-linear learning and
discovery rather than passive absorption. Funny enough, the same countries
also seem to be very strong adopters of the internet, while countries
with a more rigid educational approach tend to be rather slow at picking
up the net.
From: Louis Moussy
Subject: [012] Electronic Banking for SMEs
Dear colleagues,
Here is a point of view from Eric Blot-Lefevre concerning the Electronic
Banking at the service of Small and Medium size Enterprises. SMEs, and their
difficulty to come in the Information Society, is at the center of
Electronic Commerce Europe (ECE) concern. Eric, as ECE Chairman, has
launched, under the European Commission DGXXIII sponsorship, a SME's best
practices Task Force.
Electronic Banking at the service of Small and Medium size Enterprises
The latter years of the 1990s are witnessing two major revolutions in the
world of European business: first the introduction of the Euro, the final
key step in the establishment of a truly single market, and second the
foreseeable development of electronic commerce over the Internet. These two
revolutions, for which few businesses, even banks, are prepared, will
radically change the relations between banks and business at the beginning
of the next century. The introduction of the Euro and the explosion expected
in electronic commerce throughout Europe, two phenomena much more closely
linked than many realise, cannot take place successfully unless certain
preliminary steps are properly completed.
Citing certain statistics for France and Europe, we see that in France, for
example, inter-company credit represents 2,600 billion francs, over four
times the total amount of short, medium or long-term bank lending to
business. Customer receivables account on average for 35% of corporate
balance sheets. The level of unpaid debts is rising, however, by 15 to 20%
annually, and payment times are far from decreasing. Given the severity of
global competition to which most SMEs are subject, a solution must be found
if these companies are not to go to the wall or fall victim to takeovers by
foreign competitors who are often financially sounder. The size of balance
sheets must be reduced by securitisation, transparency must be increased by
extending the practice of credit rating and improving the quality of payment
guarantees. The question arises equally for other European countries, where
similar efforts will be required. We should never forget that across Europe
there exist 15 million firms employing fewer than 9 people, 1 million
employing between 10 and 50, 160,000 employing between 50 and 250, and
35,000 with over 250 employees.
What are the steps required to complete these revolutions successfully?
Firstly, the introduction of the euro will lead to complex modifications in
budget management up to and including monetary settlement. The next
consequence will be a thoroughgoing reform in financial intermediation in
terms of means of finance and payment. Finally, there will be an increase in
the relative importance of financial assets in the form of commercial debt
securities as compared to the current status of other purely financial
assets such as government bonds. This final objective will be made not only
possible but necessary by the determination of Europe's governments to limit
their budget deficits and also intangibly to base all lending on a secure
underlying commercial asset.
As far as the growth of electronic commerce over the Internet is concerned,
1998 is the year that will see the first worldwide offer of a Secure
Communication Network (SCN) providing the four characteristics essential to
guarantee companies an optimum level of security: authentication,
integration, non-repudiation and confidentiality. Furthermore, the impact of
electronic commerce which, by its very nature, dematerialises transactions,
provides secure data transfer and improves commercial, administrative and
financial processes, will be strengthened by the existence of a single
currency, simplifying procedures and facilitating international price
comparisons.
These two revolutions will also bring about radical changes in methods of
corporate management.
Administrative transactions will no longer be dealt with in dispersed order,
and the integrity, certification and conservation functions will make
possible real-time association of 'treasury management' and 'customer risk'
functions, eliminate duplicated data entry and suspense items, and reduce
costs. It will also foster the development of outsourcing in application of
a certified code of good conduct.
Improvements in the quality of treasury management in the strictest sense
will also become apparent: risk cover by systematic support, whether in the
field of interest or exchange rate risk, the follow-up of counterparty risk,
irrevocable and confirmed letters of credit outstanding, or financial
guarantees given or received.
In addition, the rating of company commercial portfolios may, in many cases,
lead to a reduction in the cost of their bank lending.
Finally, in the field of encashment and disbursement, the monitoring of
payment times, as well as the search for proof in the event of disputes,
will be greatly facilitated, particularly by the existence of a certifying
third party able to play the role of arbitrator.
All these improvements should enable companies to obtain ISO 9002 quality
certification more rapidly, or make it easier for them to demonstrate
compliance with accounting standards recommended by the IASC or the FASB
(FAS 032 in particular).
It is against this background that banking services will be obliged to
evolve significantly. A more global and better integrated approach to their
service offering, greater quality and regularity in most of their services,
accompanied by increased customer loyalty, will enable the banks to keep
pace with company growth and geographical expansion. A software and
communication solution based on standards and interoperability across an
organised market should also help to improve substantially the range of
services offered by the banks to SME's in particular.
Furthermore the banks will also be in a position to play simultaneously
several roles in which they have a direct interest, whether dealing with
SMEs or large corporations, as:
1) Financial third party (concept of shared finance/treasury function,
standardised financial instruments, increasingly wide-spread concept of
supported macro-cover, etc.).
2) Certifying third party (authenticating management acts and electronic
data storage).
3) Third party depository (holding eligible commercial debt securities on
deposit).
4) Third party payment (management of orders to pay received, scheduling
payments).
5) Netting third party.
This improvement in corporate management made possible by closer
partnerships with the banks will also free companies to bring their cover
into play earlier, to incorporate rating criteria and operating statistics
systematically when taking out their cover, and to generalise such cover on
the strength of a global and statistical approach that is both more reliable
and less expensive than over the counter cover taken out manually and on an
ad hoc basis. Finally, the efficiency of financial control will be greatly
improved by a direct reading of 'budget/outturn' variances, and by the
existence of a number of statistical reports generated automatically and
systematically.
This is the way that banking is now beginning to develop in Europe. The
trend is clearly apparent in the agreement of several European banking
commissions to increase Cooke ratio weightings in line with guarantees on
commercial portfolios issued by insurance companies, or in the many
initiatives by US insurance companies. In this particular field, we are
witnessing the growing importance of a new concept of guarantee marketing,
i.e. the concept of an insurance policy rather than a bank contract covering
guarantees on financing, liquidity, interest or exchange rates, which
stresses the idea of an overall guarantee on turnover and hence that of
'fully comprehensive' corporate financial insurance.
It is not only the banks and insurance companies that are reacting and
seeking to revitalise their service offerings to companies. A certain number
of projects relating to identical or closely-related topics are continuing
to flourish here and there throughout Europe. Examples include projects to
provide secure inter-company networks (PAS-Poste, the Cashware project,
etc.), the development of management software applications (SAP/Deutsche
Bank, ECE working groups, SME's best practices), the development of service
offerings by certifying third party candidates, as well as turnkey solutions
in the field of data protection and confidentiality (the Integrity solution
project, for example).
Nor should we forget the financing of European programmes, such as those of
SME Sweden (100 MF), or the European Commission's ESPRIT programme (DGIII),
or the Memorandum of Understanding signed by 600 businesses on the
development of business to business electronic commerce.
Let us close by citing some of the organised inter-company markets, such as
those operating in Great Britain (ICL/Barclays), the Netherlands
(ABN-AMRO/Philips), Japan (E:COM project), or CALS, not to mention the
spectacular subsidy paid by MITI (some 100 million dollars in 1996 and 1997)
to affiliated companies in order to develop their electronic commerce skills.
In short, the electronic commerce revolution is fast approaching. It is
becoming increasingly clear that the question of 'platform' is no longer the
focus of all energies. Advances in technology in recent years have been so
rapid that there is now a range of technical solutions available to both
current and potential customers and suppliers of electronic commerce. We
must expect to see a commercial war between all the service providers, the
IT and telecommunications services companies, to seize significant market
share in every field relating to platforms. Now, however, the challenges and
the energies of all concerned are directed primarily towards questions of
'content': code of conduct, operating rules, methodology of electronic data
interchange, legal recommendations valid on an international level, creating
awareness in the players involved, including the relevant administrative
authorities (e.g. dematerialised tax returns). In short, as far as
electronic commerce is concerned, it is becoming clear that the large-scale
pre-operational phase is drawing to a close, and that soon end-customers
will need to become at international level what they sometimes are at local
or national level: these 'kings' must take on board all the changes tending
towards universality of methods and means of communication, otherwise they
will rapidly be left behind in the race.
From: Ernest Wilson
Subject: [013] Re: message from J. Helsingius
This discussion started with leadership in the IT era as an initial
issue, and leadership has remained an important theme that many of
you have continued to address. Let me raise two questions:
- In the transition to a Global Information Society (GIS), is 'the
concept of IT leadership different in Japan? In Sweden? Brazil? US?
- What exactly is 'Leadership' during this period of transition?
I believe different societies are approaching 'leadership'/IT
promotion in different ways, and I believe there is far too little
discussion of these transnational, transcultural differences in
the cyberspace that is being created. Having returned from 3 weeks in
Asia (and off tonight to South Africa, I am convinced leadership
matters, and leadership's meaning differs from culture to culture.
But I welcome other views.
On the second question, 'What is Leadership for a GIS', let me
suggest a five part definition:
1) Promotional Leadership in IT - ie generally promoting IT and
its importance to citizens. One leads by saying 'IT is important; pay
attention and act'.
2) IT Issue Leadership: The leader stakes out a partisan
position on a particular issue (IPR, access, encryption, etc)
3) Intellectual Leadership - The leader helps identify and frame
the key IT issues for the NII or GII.
4) Structural Leadership: The leaders guide the (re) definition
of the 'rules of the game', cf WTO, ITA, etc. New laws, regulations,
institutions, etc. that shape consumer and citizen behavior.
5) Political Leadership on IT. The leader puts together the
constituencies and coalitions that make 1-4 more sustainable.
This typology is just a suggested way of thinking about the
leadership requirements for the current IT transition 1998-20??
toward a global information society.
A final question - are all groups at the national level getting a
fair chance to 'lead'/participate in this transition? Rural groups?
All citizens? What about internationally? Leadership also means the
wisdom to be inclusive...
From: Antonio Rodríguez Chapa
Subject: [014] RE: Nikkei Net Conferences
There are certain realities that apply to developing countries, especially Latin America, for which I am going to give some of our experiences and insights.
- We follow the industrialized countries, especially USA, so we can choose the winners and avoid the expensive market experiments (remember the electronic malls?)
- The sector with the most gains has been the Business to Business, especially the SME's, which did not have access to inexpensive telecommunication before.
- The security and authentification evolution is taking its own form, given that almost all of Latin America's countries laws are based on Roman law. That gives special attributes to the public notary.
- There is a leapfrog effect, given that a lot of companies are just beginning to manage their workflow through Intranets, or even their connections with providers and/or distribution channels with extranets, and they don't have legacy systems that slows introduction of new technology.
- For the first time, technology is cheap and accessibility to new ideas is just a click away, so we now have a fair playing field.
- Although there are still some countries in which the telecom cost is very high, most of the countries in Latam are already deregulated or in the process of deregulating, which is bringing the costs down.
I hope this information is helpful in understanding how this new technology is helping in accelerating market evolution in emerging markets.
From: Jim A. Johnson
Subject: [015 Role of private sector vs. government.
Dear colleagues:
We have been discussing some interesting points about the
relative roles, or different functions, of the private sector vs.
government.
I just returned from Taiwan where I spoke to the Internet
Commerce Expo. We had discussions about the changing
roles of government in the networked society. Surprisingly,
they have some interesting new ideas about how the Internet
is going to change the roles and functions of government,
including international relations and trade; and the private
sector -- defined both as private businesses, and private
sector social, developmental, intermediating structures.
We have governments privatizing their functions (witness the
announcement to privatize China Telecom); and we have
multinational corporations acting like governments in some
cases -ie. setting international standards, and writing new
rules for the law of the Internet.
How will the Internet impact these basic institutions?
We have the EU's Bangemann-Brittan proposing a global
charter of rules for the cyber marketplace - governmnent led,
but with consultation with the private sector. We have Ira
Magaziner of the White House proposing that governments
get out of the business of setting domain names, and turn it
over to private, non-profit institutions. And then we have
Daniel Salcedo's PEOPLINK going ahead to empower poor
craftsmen from Central America and Africa to sell their work
on the global market for profit!
So who is really building the networked society for the 21st
century?
Your comments are welcome.
From: Global Information Summit Office
Subject: [016] Comments form Mr. B. Lanvin
In response to Georges Fisher's comment and Johan Helsingius's reaction.
I believe that the point of non-linearity is well taken. However,
the issue is also that of inter-disciplinarity. In that sense, the Internet
substance reflects its architecture (the medium IS the message): packet
switching allows parts of an Internet message to travel along many paths
before getting back together on the screen of the receiver. The same is true for
learning: the Internet model encourages students to find responses without
pre-determining the path to be followed; some will take very direct ones,
while others will wander from a math site to an epistemology one, then to a bit of
history, followed by language studies, and then back to signal processing
and physics/maths. This is the opposite of the traditional model (especially in
sciences) in which the teacher knew not only where he/she wanted to take the
student, but also through which steps this was supposed to happen.
Are our teachers ready is an important question. Are our education
systems ready is a more tricky one.
From: Robert Hettinga
Subject: [017] A Geodesic Society?
As the token cryptoanarchist around here, I've been lurking way too long,
mostly because I'm working on this financial cryptography conference we're
doing in Anguilla next week. However, A lot of good stuff has gone by on all
of these groups, and I think it's time I put my oar in and earn my keep a
bit before I enter the maelstrom of next week's FC98 conference, and lose
my chance to say anything here until it's all over.
The first topic I'd like to talk about is something which is more general
than my ostensible commercial focus in these discussions, and, after I've
said my piece here, I'll go back to the commerce list and pay more attention
to that end of things. I have a little more to say there on what you can do
with the technology of money on public networks, though I'll drop a few
hints here to get people thinking about them.
My observation about networks in general is a rather obvious one when you
think about it: our social structures map to our communication structures.
As intuitive as it is to understand, this observation provides great insight
into where the technology of computer assisted communication will take us in
the years ahead.
Because of Moore's Law and its effect of collapsing the price of
semiconductors by half every 18 months, our telecommunication architectures
have changed from hierarchical networks, where it's cheaper to add lines
than it is to add expensive switching nodes, to geodesic networks, where it
is ever-exponentially cheaper to add microprocessor switches instead of now
relatively more expensive transmission lines.
This isn't new. In fact, it's outlined in Peter Huber's landmark 'The
Geodesic Network', written in 1986 as a report for Judge Harold Greene as
part of the Modified Final Judgement which broke up American Telephone and
Telegraph, and with it the US telephone monopoly. I believe the original
version is still available from the US Government Printing Office, and I
know that you can order a revised edition from Peter Huber's law firm in
Washington. Huber himself is now a famous technology analyst from the
Manhattan Institute and a Forbes columnist, among other things.
In 'The Geodesic Network', Huber observed that because the network was
becoming more and more geodesic, competition in telecommunications was
becoming much easier. That's because switching, a scarce thing which had
heretofore caused economies of scale and resultant 'natural' monopoly, was
becoming cheaper and cheaper to build, and thus causing *dis*economies of
scale in the telephone markets.
One can almost hear Huber doing a little heavy lifting from the Marines in
report's conclusion, which was, essentially, 'Deregulate 'em all, and let
God sort 'em out.' It's nice to see that we're finally getting to see
deregulation of the 'last mile' of the US telephone network 10 years after
Huber's recommendation.
As it is, it took *me* almost 10 years to realize something else about
geodesic networks. It's something which required me getting back on the
internet 4 years ago, after not being there since grad school, and
discovering that financial cryptography -- that is, the cryptographic
protocols for internet payment -- was much more important than the project
management software I had wanted to sell on the net at the time.
My realization was, if Moore's Law creates geodesic communications networks,
and our social structures -- our institutions, our businesses, our
governments -- all map to the way we communicate in large groups, then we
are in the process of creating a geodesic society. A society in which
communication between any two residents of that society, people, economic
entities, pieces of software, whatever, is geodesic: literally, the
straightest line across a sphere, rather than hierarchical, through a chain
of command, for instance.
This seems like a very simple truth these days. A 'motherhood', as people in
American business like to say. But, once you start thinking about the world
in the terms of geodesic networks versus hierarchical ones, the world
changes. A Buckminster Fuller version of satori, if you will, though I'm
sure Bucky didn't think of human society in geodesic terms, at least from
what I've read of his work. His 'World Game', for instance, is primarily
about the hierarchical centralization and redistribution of resources in an
industrial fashion. But, as it was, Bucky Fuller had discovered a geometric
archtype which was deeper than even his capacious understanding of its
implications had gotten him before.
So in light of this observation, for fun, let's look at human history in a
few paragraphs. :-).
Humans first lived in small groups on the African savanna. An artifact of
this life is the fact that most people can't have serious emotional
relationships with more than about 12 people, depending on how you define
serious. :-). Think of it as the carrying capacity of the human 'switch',
and things get interesting. These small groups communicated geodesically.
When you wanted to talk to someone, you went up and talked to them. Then we
developed agriculture and its resulting food surpluses, people tended to
congregate at the crossroads of trade routes, and that's where the first
cities began. Civilization means, literally, 'life in cities', remember?
Once we had large groups of people in a single place, we had lots of
information to pass around, but we also had expensive humans 'switching'
that information who were only able to trust about 12 people at any time.
So, we had to develop hierarchical 'networks', social organizations in other
words, to move that information around. Notice we finesse the whole trust
problem by using the entire hierarchy as one entity in everyone's
trusted-person list. That's why people die for king and country, for
instance, instead of just their family hunter-gatherer clan.
So, we can now see the ancient city-state as a hierarchy of power,
economics, whatever. We can also see ancient empires as a hierarchies of
city states, and so on. Notice that the size of any given hierarchy in
geographic terms is determined by the *speed* of communications it possesses.
Athenian triremes were very secure ways to move goods and information in a
relatively lawless Aegean. Roman roads and galleys didn't just haul goods
quickly, they moved information as well. Staged Mongol riders could carry
messages across their own short-lived empire from a capital near China to
the gates of Warsaw in as little as 14 days. Napoleon invented his
10-mile-an-hour stagecoach and highway system for exactly the same reason,
and could almost legitimately call himself an emperor for the feat alone.
That brings us to the modern nation state, which, I claim, is entirely the
result of industrial communications technology. That is, you have
increasingly faster communications, from sailing ships to trains to
telegraphy and finally telephony, but you still have humans switching
information. That gives you larger and larger communication, and thus
social, hierarchies. Up until the automation of telephone switching --
paradoxically brought about a demand for universal service in exchange for
that ultimate industrial hierarchy, the US telephone monopoly -- things just
kept getting bigger and bigger. One could even see the increasing size of
government in this century as an 'antihierarchy' funded by the forcible
confiscation or political extortion of economic rents from the large
industrial hierarchies where industrial society's money was being made in
the first place.
For a tasty little digression, Marxism then can be seen as simple
anti-industrialism, and an intriguing validation of Bertrand Russell's
comments about the similarity of Marxism and the feudal aristocracy it hated
so much. Hegel can't come to Marx's rescue here at all, because, for all
it's anarchistic pretensions, Marxism can now be seen as merely
industrialism's hierarchical antithesis, and not something 'beyond
capitalism'. Besides, trading has been around since the savana itself. It's
hard to imagine something antithetical to trade -- and have the result be
human, anyway. :-).
Okay. Now let's look at the future, shall we? Oddly enough, the 'future'
starts with the grant of telephone monopoly to AT&T in the 1920's in
exchange for universal telephone service. When AT&T figured out that a
majority of people would have to be telephone operators for that to happen,
it started to automate switching, from electricomechanical, to electronic
(the transistor was invented at Ball Labs, remember), to, finally,
semiconducting microprocessors. Which, Huber noted, brought us Moore's Law,
and, finally, that mother of all geodesic networks, the internet.
So, seen this way, using the hierarchy-to-geodesy synthesis (speaking of
Hegel :-)), a lot of things jump out right at us. Let's look at financial
operations, for example.
One can see, for instance, that the thing we call disintermediation in the
capital markets is in fact a process leading to something I call
*micro*intermediation, where large human decision hierarchies, like the New
York Stock Exchange, or money center banks, are being outcompeted by large
integrated proprietary computer networks, like the NASDAQ interbrokerage
network, or Fidelity Investments here in Boston. Yet, these financial
versions of big dumb bulletin boards, which still need humans to operate
them on behalf of the customer, will themselves be replaced someday by
smaller, more specialized and automated entities operating in increasingly
smaller market niches, and, we aren't just talking about financial
'shovelware', with database-driven web forms, either.
Someday, for instance, a couple of portfolio managers from Fidelity could
strike out on their own peculiar investment specialty, and set up a web
server to handle their investor relations, but in a way that financial
operations people thought was obsolete decades ago. Using financial
cryptography like David Chaum's blind signature protocol, our portfolio
managers could just issue digital *bearer* certificates, right over the net
to their customers, representing shares in the portfolio they manage, rather
than keep track of all a given client's transactions in a database for
posterity. Even more fun, using the digital bearer *cash* they get from the
sale of those certificates, they could turn right around and instantly buy
debt, equity, or any derivative thereof, in digital bearer form, of course,
without waiting for any transactions to settle through a clearinghouse of
any kind. Why? Because knowing that you've digitally signed a unique blop of
bits and honoring the promises those various outstanding blops represent is
a whole lot easier, faster, and, of course, cheaper than keeping track of
every transaction you make for seven years, or whatever your friendly nation
state says you have to do so they can send somebody to jail if that person
lies to you. And, of course, digital bearer settlement is *much* faster than
waiting for all those book-entries to percolate through various
clearinghouses, banks, brokerages, and other financial intermediaries in
order for a trade to clear and settle.
Financial cryptography is a direct consequence of Moore's Law. You can't do
it without computers, and, more important, lots of cheap computers on a
network. But, you can do a lot of very neat things with it, as we've seen
above. In fact, the protocols of financial cryptography will be the glue
which holds a geodesic economy, if you will, together. And, of course, as
Deke Slayton put it, 'No bucks, no Buck Rogers.' No geodesic economy, no
geodesic society.
I joke about VISA being replaced someday by an innumerable swarm of very
small underwriting 'bots' whose job it is to form an ad hoc syndicate which
buys the personal digital bearer bond issue you floated for today's lunch.
In a geodesic market, the one-to-many relationships of hierarchical
book-entry-settled industrial finance, like checks and credit cards, becomes
to the many-to-one relationship of the geodesic digital-bearer-settled cash
and the personal bond syndicate.
But, what, you ask, do I do when someone defrauds me? The neat thing about
using financial cryptography on public networks is that you can use the much
cheaper early-industrial trust models that went away because you couldn't
shove a paper bearer bond down a telegraph wire. In short, reputation
becomes everything. Like J. Pierpont Morgan said 90 years ago,
'...Character. I wouldn't buy anything from a man with no character if he
offered me all the bonds in Christendom.' In a geodesic market, if someone
commits fraud, everyone knows it. Instantly. And, something much worse than
incarceration happens to that person. That person's reputation 'capital'
disappears. They cease to exist financially. Financial cryptographers
jokingly call it reputation capital punishment. :-). The miscreant has to
start all over with a new digital signature, and have to pay through the
nose until that signature's reputation's established. A very long and
expensive process, as anyone who's gone bankrupt will testify to.
So, you don't need biometric identity to stop non-repudiation. Translated,
that means that since you're moving secure digital bearer certificates over
an insecure private network like the internet, and not moving insecure
debits and credits over a secure private network like the SWIFT system, you
don't need audit trails to send someone to jail if they make the wrong book
entry.
Instead, you trust the issuer of a given piece of digital bearer cash, say,
and not the person who gave it to you, just like you trust the issuer of a
given currency today. Biometric identity is orthogonal to reputation in, um,
'cypherspace'. And, of course, a financial intermediary like the above
issuer of digital bearer cash is not about to destroy its reputation for the
sake of a very small transaction like the one you're doing, any more than
the Fed would demand 6 one dollar bills in exchange for one five dollar bill
just to make an extra buck. Well, not since they started listening to
Friedman, anyway. :-)
Microintermediation means what it says. Financial intermediaries never go
away. You can't have markets, much less efficient ones, without financial
intermediaries buying things low and selling them high. Renting their
reputations to ensure transaction liquidity, in other words. This is at the
essence of Von Mises' 'Calculation Argument' against planned economies, and
the defunct economy of the ex-Soviet Union is mute testament to that
particular economic truth.
Moore's Law, I like to say, operates like a surfactant of information,
breaking great globs of concentrated information fractally into smaller and
smaller bits, like so much grease in soapy dishwater. Capital, for the most
part, can now be converted into information and instantly bought or sold,
or, more to the point, instantly settled and cleared in digital bearer form,
in increasingly smaller and smaller bits, by smaller and smaller and
increasingly more automated financial intermediaries. Microintermediated, in
other words.
What we get is a world where anything which can be digitized and sent down a
wire will be auctioned off in real-time in cash-settled markets. Stuff like
capital we've seen, but lots of other things, which are not immediately
intuitive. Machine instructions -- teleoperated or not. Software of all
kinds including entertainment and art. Bandwidth; I talk about a router
saving enough micromoney out of switching income to buy a copy of itself.
Maybe even adjudication and physical force, someday. After all, who says we
have to buy violence from the local force monopolies we now call nation
states, especially if we can get it cheaper and better -- and possibly in
smaller amounts -- in a competitive auction market? Curioser and curioser,
as Alice used to say...
I mean, the nation-state's just another hierarchical artifact of industrial
communication technology, right? Besides, If everyone's paying for things in
cash and no book entry taxes can be collected because there aren't any book
entries, then, as someone said on a Harvard Law School list a few years ago,
'What happens when taxes become a tip'? Of course, there are various
cypherpunks out there who say things like 'Write software, not laws.', which
should make those folks on Mass Ave in Cambridge more than a little nervous
themselves.
So, welcome to the geodesic future. Not hoping to attract the wrath of the
famous curse, isn't it an, um, interesting place?
From: Jim A. Johnson
Subject: [018] Your Advice to Japan
We have enjoyed exploring many different ideas these past
weeks concerning the nature of the global information
infrastructure, the networked society, global electronic
commerce, the various roles of present institutions in the
future cyber world, the kinds of leadership needed to carry us
into the future, and how we should educate and prepare the
next generation for their brave new world.
I would like to challenge all of you, now, to frame these ideas
in the form of some friendly advice that you would give to
interested citizens in Japan.
As you know, one of the reasons that Nikkei has organized
this global net conference is to point toward a launchpad
event on March 10, the Global Information Summit. This
Summit is designed to increase awareness among Japan's
leaders to what is happening around the world in the
information revolution. This event is envisioned as the
beginning of a process of thought leadership and debate to
prepare the nation for the future.
Frame your comments in terms of what you would advise our
friends in Japan:
What new ideas need to be circulated to help get Japan
ready for the networked world?
Based on what you know about Japan: their business
structures, their political institutions, their education system,
their cultural patterns, how would you recommend they
change?
What can they draw upon from the past and present to use
in building the future information society?
What is there about Japan now that enables them to be
leaders in the information age?
What new things and new ideas do they need to grasp to
move forward?
What specific changes need to happen, and in what
frameworks? The schools? the businesses? the political
institutions? the legal system?
I look forward to advice. Thank you.
From: List Administrator
Subject: [019] Translation from the Japanese Online Conference
Following is a summary of points discussed in the parallel Japanese Online
Conference.
12th to 15th February
The debate over electronic settlement (digital money) continues unabated, and
the following views were presented.
- In the mail order business, because of the costs of reverse slips, a credit
card type system is the preferred choice, because of the time lapse that is
generated.
- Digital money allows transactions between private individuals.
- Current malls do not adequately meet the needs of consumers.
- In America, the trend is towards the private sector, and a buyer centric
market.
- Those involved in EC in Japan appear to lean a little too far on the
technology side.
- ECOM too, is techno-centric.
The introduction of electronic cards was also discussed, and several
viewpoints presented.
- The choice between contact types and non-contact types, and the timing
of the introduction, are key points.
- The cost of the readers is prohibitive, and would inhibit wide scale
introduction in shops.
- The idea has very low priority when compared with the combination of
credit cards and cash.
Copyright 1998 Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Inc., all rights reserved.
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