End-users shape mobile information society
Mr. Jorma Ollila
Chairman of the Board and CEO, Nokia Group
Nokia CEO predicts cell-phone users to top 1 billion in two years
Jorma Ollila, chairman and chief executive officer of Nokia Group, the Finnish cellular-phone giant, in his keynote speech talked about the way to what he called the Mobile Information Society. Excerpts of the speech follow:
As the title of my presentation suggests, we are evolving toward what we call the Mobile Information Society, and the impact is beginning to make itself felt. But this is just a rumble. In the next few years the changes will shake just about everybody on this planet.
It is the twin drivers of the Internet and mobility that are enabling us to break through many limits. We are breaking through the limits of time and space. The Internet is where most information today is stored - a sort of virtual information megastore. Not only has it become an important tool in the work place, it has also increasingly become an important part of our personal lives. Many of us use the Net to find out everything from which car to buy to which vacation destination to choose. The second key driver is that of mobility. We all are becoming increasingly mobile. Studies show that many of us spend less than half of our working day at desks. Work clearly no longer is a place. It is several places and stopovers.
Forecasting the take up of a particular technology or solution is always very difficult. As recently as 1991, less than 10 million people in the world had a mobile phone. In 1992, we at Nokia projected that in 1999 the mobile phone market, in units, would be in the order of 40 million worldwide. Last year, we estimate approximately 275 million units were sold, making mobile phones the largest electronics market in the world.
As a leader in mobility, we have seen firsthand the result of these market dynamics, for example, the huge surge in the adoption of wireless portable devices. In Finland and in some other European countries, the penetration rate is now approaching 70%. Approximately 40% of the world's mobile-phone users are based in Europe. However, the countries with the biggest mobile-phone markets are the United States, Japan, China and the United Kingdom. We foresee over 1 billion mobile-phone users in the world in 2002.
An increasing part of the growth in mobile wireless devices will come from Web-connected handsets. In our estimates, the number of mobile phones connected to the Web will exceed the number of personal computers connected to the Internet in the year 2003. This means that the future will not be PC-centric but mobile-phone-centric.
Despite the rapid technological evolution, it will be end-user needs that ultimately dominate the development of services and applications in the Mobile Information Society. Content, such as Web-based information, will be appropriately matched to the device. People will be likely to have multiple devices and will select the instrument most appropriate for the application, the desired portability and lifestyle.
I mentioned that the Mobile Information Society is already making itself felt. An example of this is mobile banking. Customers of personalized banking services in Europe are able to run their accounts by using their phones to dial up their Internet service provider. Nokia and Amazon.com are cooperating to provide mobile-commerce services allowing users to search for, read reviews and purchase items via their Web-connected handsets.
Industries converging
Through digitization and fast technological development, the formerly clearly separate industries of information technology, telecommunications, consumer electronics and information distribution are becoming increasingly similar. Digital convergence will form a new, fast-moving industry.
Mobile users will benefit directly by being able to access the information they need when and where they need it. Corporations will benefit through huge advances in productivity. The simple question - who will benefit? - has a simple answer - we all will.
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